Study Finds Harm in Headlines Hyping Social Security Shortfalls

It’s often said that “if it bleeds, it leads”—and, according to a new report, it may also mislead.

The study—by folks at the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College—looked at coverage of Social Security’s finances, noting that while the 2020 Trustees Report projects that the Social Security Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) program faces a long-term financing shortfall and that the trust fund will deplete its reserves in 2034 (after which payroll tax revenues will cover only about three-quarters of scheduled benefits), news coverage[1] of the Trustees Report “often emphasizes the trust fund depletion date and de-emphasizes the ability of ongoing revenue to support three-quarters of scheduled benefits.” The researchers note that this “half-empty” emphasis “could lead the public to believe that all future benefits are insecure” (as opposed to a quarter, apparently). 

More specifically, the study used an online experiment in which participants[2] were shown identical articles with different headlines. The headline for the control group reported that Social Security had a “long-term financing shortfall,” but did not directly reference the trust fund, while the headlines for the three “treatment groups” highlighted the depletion of the trust fund. Two treatment groups were shown a headline emphasizing the trust fund’s 2034 reserve depletion date—“using increasingly sensationalist language,” while a third treatment group saw a headline explaining that ongoing program revenues will cover three-quarters of scheduled benefits after 2034.  

Now, bearing in mind that these results measure what people say they would do, rather than what they actually did, the paper found that “treated respondents”: 

• plan to claim around one year earlier than the control group; and 
• shifted their expectations about the level of future benefits away from extreme positions and toward a more realistic assessment. 

In particular, they note, the headline[3] emphasizing ongoing revenues yielded the most accurate beliefs about the level of future benefits.  

They conclude that shifting the media narrative around the trust fund to highlight ongoing revenues could improve the public’s understanding of actuarial projections, though workers still may respond to news coverage of the trust fund by claiming earlier. And, of course, if workers do, in fact, claim earlier, that might result in their locking in lower monthly benefits.

Anybody think this report will change the reporting? 

Not as long as journalists are paying attention to clicks…  

Footnotes

[1] The study cites the headline of a 2019 New York Times article that reads, “Social Security and Medicare Funds Face Insolvency, Report Finds,” while the implications of reserve depletion are described in vague terms only in the body of the text: “the program’s reserve fund is projected to be depleted in 16 years, at which time recipients will get smaller payments than they are scheduled to receive if Congress does not act.” Similarly, a 2019 FOXBusiness article ran the headline, “Social Security shortfall: Trust fund to run dry in 2035, trustees predict.” The caveat that tax revenues are sufficient to pay three-quarters of scheduled benefits appears in the third paragraph, according to the study.  

[2] To participate in the study, panelists needed to be ages 21 to 61 in 2021, be in the labor force, or have accumulated 40 quarters to qualify for future Social Security retirement benefits. Interestingly enough, the study also notes that “recognizing that workers cannot be expected to think calmly about Social Security in the midst of an unprecedented public health emergency, the experiment was fielded in June 2021 when the COVID-19 crisis was (at least temporarily) receding.”

[3] FWIW, our headline was “Social Security Trust Funds Take a Step Backward.”