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CBO Updates Long-Term Social Security Projections

Technical Resources

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has issued an update to its long-term projections concerning Social Security.

The CBO provides such updates annually. The latest update follows the format CBO used in 2016 when it published such information in a separate report, “Long-Term Projections for Social Security: Additional Information.”

Highlights of the updated information include:

  • The CBO projects that Social Security outlays in 2019 will amount to 4.9% of the U.S. gross domestic product, and 5.9% in 2029.
  • The CBO estimates that in 2019, total mandatory federal outlays (net of offsetting receipts) will amount to $2.7 trillion, up from $2.6 trillion in 2018. It attributes that increase in part to greater outlays for Social Security.
  • Social Security outlays will rise by $56 billion (or 6%) relative to those of 2018, reaching $1.0 trillion this year. The CBO attributes that increase to growth in the number of beneficiaries and in the average benefit payment.
  • The CBO expects that receipts from payroll taxes — which primarily fund Social Security and Medicare’s Hospital Insurance program — will increase by $76 billion (or 6%) this year.

Over the coming decade, CBO projects that federal outlays will grow at an average annual rate of 5%, reaching $7.1 trillion in 2029 (adjusted to exclude the effects of timing shifts). Outlays for Social Security, Medicare, and net interest account for about two-thirds of that $2.7 trillion increase, says the CBO.

Spending on Social Security and the major federal health care programs (Medicare, Medicaid, subsidies offered through the health insurance marketplaces established under the Affordable Care Act and related spending, and the Children’s Health Insurance Program) will account for more than 90% of the projected growth in nominal mandatory spending through 2029.