SSA Actuary Office Updates Probability Tables

The Social Security Administration’s Office of the Chief Actuary has issued updated disability and death probability tables. “Disability and Death Probability Tables for Insured Workers Born in 1995” is based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2015 Trustees Report.

The report presents estimates of the probability that an illustrative worker will become disabled or die before reaching normal retirement age. The office defines an illustrative worker as one who is:

• born in 1995;

• becomes insured at age 20 in 2015; and

• maintains insured status thereafter.

Normal retirement age, the age at which full Social Security benefits can be received, is age 67 for the illustrative worker in the report.

The SSA Office of the Actuary says in the report that projected probabilities of death before normal retirement age have decreased between the 1966 and 1995 cohorts, which it says reflects, in part, the actual improvement in mortality between 1986 and 2015.

The report also says that the projected probability of becoming disabled before normal retirement age has decreased for insured men between the 1966 and 1995 cohorts, but has increased for insured women. For the 1995 birth cohort, the office projects that the probability of surviving from age 20 to normal retirement age without ever being disabled is 64 percent for males and 69% for females. It says that comparable probabilities projected for the 1966 birth cohort are 58% for males and 70% for females.